2013年第三季度新西兰制药及保健市场研究报告——New Zealand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Pharmaceuticals|Healthcare|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: Low growth potential in New Zealand's pharmaceutical market will attract risk-averse
investors. However, we note that regulatory delays in funding new medicines will hinder patients' access to
pharmaceuticals, constituting a downside risk for drug companies looking to sell their products in the
country.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
■ Pharmaceuticals: NZD1.36bn (US$1.10bn) in 2012 to NZD1.37bn (US$1.06bn) in 2013; +0.5% in local
currency and -3.8% in US dollar terms.
■ Healthcare: NZD21.22bn (US$17.19bn) in 2012 to NZD21.96bn (US$17.02bn) in 2013; +3.5% in local
currency and -1.0% in US dollar terms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Political . 10
Economic ..... 11
Business Environment  13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast .... 15
Table: New Zealand Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts . . . 15
Healthcare Market Forecast .... 17
Table: New Zealand Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts    . . . 17
Table: New Zealand Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts . . 18
Table: New Zealand Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts  . . . 18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast  19
Table: New Zealand Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts   . . 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast ..... 20
Table: New Zealand Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts    . 21
Generic Drugs Market Forecast ..... 22
Table: New Zealand Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts    . 22
OTC Medicines Market Forecast .... 23
Table: New Zealand Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts    . . . 23
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast ..... 24
Table: New Zealand Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn) . . . 24
Table: New Zealand Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (NZDmn) . . 25
Other Healthcare Data ..... 26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ... 27
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 28
Economic Analysis ..... 28
Rising Housing Market Spurring Economic Activity .. 29
Authorities To Cool Credit Growth  30
Reliance On Foreign Funding Poses A Risk  31
Government To Keep Focus On Fiscal Consolidation ..... 31
Healthy Corporate Sector To Remain Cautious .. 32
Table: New Zealand - Economic Activity    . . . 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  34
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings ... 34
New Zealand Risk/Reward Ratings .. 39
Rewards ..... 39
Risks .... 39
Market Overview ... 40
Industry Trends And Developments .. 41
Epidemiology .... 41
Healthcare Sector .... 42
Infrastructure .... 44
Table: Regional Ranking of Projected Physicians, 2017. . 46
Table: Projected Physicians, 2012-2017    . . . 47
Table: Active Medical Practitioners, 2005-2010  . . 47
Distribution Channels ..... 48
Table: Pharmacybrands Stores by Company & Region, 2010     . 50
Research and Development (R&D)  50
Clinical Trials Sector ..... 51
Regulatory Development .. 53
Regulatory Regime ... 53
Intellectual Property Regime .. 53
Pricing & Reimbursement  54
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn) . . 58
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn)    . . 58
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010 59
Recent Regulatory Developments .. 60
Competitive Landscape .... 62
Table: Licensed Medicine Manufacturers, 2008  . . . 62
Company Profile .... 66
Douglas Pharmaceuticals . 66
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals . 69
Demographic Forecast ..... 72
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)   . . . 73
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)  . 74
Table: New Zealand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 75
Table: New Zealand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020    . . 75
Glossary ..... 76
Methodology .... 78
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model .... 78
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model ..... 78
Notes On Methodology .... 79
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology  80
Ratings Overview ..... 81
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators. . . 81
Indicator Weightings  82

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