2013年第三季度罗马尼亚石化市场研究报告——Romania Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Petrochemicals|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: There is currently a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of
Romanian petrochemicals producer Oltchim following the decision to file for insolvency in January 2013
after an attempt to privatise the firm failed. Nevertheless, the relatively strong domestic market is
registering growth in the consumption of petrochemicals - particularly in the construction and automotive
sectors - and with domestic production at low levels due to structural and financial problems within the
industry, Romania appears to be one of the few European markets with the potential for import growth.
BMI estimates that chemical production fell by 2.3% y-o-y in 2012, while rubber and plastic production fell
12.0% y-o-y. This was a reversal on the gains registered by the Romanian petrochemicals industry in 2011,
when chemicals output grew 9% and rubber and plastic grew 6%. The situation was within the forecast
range BMI estimated in the previous quarterly report with the chemicals industry improving towards the end
of the year due to a partial resumption of Oltchim's chemicals activities

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Petrochemicals ..... 9
Political . 10
Economic ..... 11
Business Environment  12
Industry Forecast .. 13
Table: Romania's Petrochemicals Indicators, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)   15
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 16
Economic Analysis ..... 16
Table: Romania - Economic Activity     . . . 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  22
Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings . 22
Trouble In The South East ..... 23
Hungary Leads EU Petrochemicals Recovery .... 23
High Risks, But High Rewards In Russia, Azerbaijan ..... 24
Table: Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)  . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 26
Market Overview ... 27
Industry Trends And Developments .. 29
Upstream .... 31
Table: Refineries In Romania . . 32
Company Profile .... 33
Lukoil Romania ... 33
Oltchim . 35
Petrom .. 38
Rompetrol .... 41
Regional Overview  44
Europe Overview . 44
Global Industry Overview .. 50
Global Petrochemicals Overview .... 50
Global Oil Product Price Outlook ... 56
Methodology ..... 56
Crude Price Forecasts .... 57
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)     . . . 57
Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off ..... 57
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl  61
Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone . 62
Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices ... 66
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect ... 67
Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump  68
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes   68
Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand . 69
Demographic Forecast ..... 71
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    . . . 72
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)   . 72
Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 73
Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020     . . . 74
Glossary ..... 75
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms    . 75
Methodology .... 76
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry ..... 76
Cross Checks .... 77
Risk/Reward Ratings . 77
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale     78
Weighting ... 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 79

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