2013年第三季度俄罗斯石油天然气市场研究报告——Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Oil|Gas|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: Russia may be pumping post-Soviet record levels of oil and is likely to continue to see a shortterm
increase in both oil and gas production; however, we warn that a high level of investment will be
required to maintain this. It also faces pressure to diversify its gas markets, in view of slower demand
growth expected from its core market in Europe and growing competition from other global gas suppliers.
There have been promises made to reform Russia's tax and regulatory system, upon which further
development of the oil and gas sector hinges. The realisation of Russia's oil and gas potential lies in
unlocking the political gridlock that is standing in the way of much needed tax and licensing reforms which
would maximise the country's full oil and gas potential.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:
■ Russian oil production reached a post-soviet high of 10.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, exceeding the
10.34mn b/d targeted by the economy ministry for 2012. In the short-term, BMI expects oil production to
trend slightly upwards as it ramps up production capacity from the remaining Soviet-era fields, while new
projects manage to just replace production lost from ageing fields. Between 2013 and 2017, we forecast
Russian production to remain relatively flat at around 10.4-10.5mn b/d. However, unless changes to its
existing tax regime takes place that will encourage brownfield investments in the near future, Russia's oil
fortunes could be set for a slow decline in the long term. We believe output will begin to decline from
2017 and fall to 10.1mn b/d by 2022. That said, any positive fiscal and regulatory changes that allow for
greater market access could have a significantly positive effect on its long-term production outlook, given
Russia's large below-ground potential.
■ On the back of economic growth and demand from the transport sector, oil consumption, which was
3.11mn b/d in 2011, should edge towards 3.80mn b/d by 2017 - providing export potential of 6.66mn b/d.
We project oil consumption to further increase to 4.51mn b/d, leaving the country with net export
capacity of about 5.61mn b/d.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Oil And Gas Reserves ..... 11
Table: Russia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016     . . . 11
Table: Russia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022     . . . 12
Table: Comparison Of Deals Netted With Rosneft  . 17
Oil Supply And Demand .. 20
Table: Russia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016  20
Table: Russia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022  21
Gas Supply And Demand . 28
Table: Russia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016 . . . 28
Table: Russia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022 . . . 29
LNG .... 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 40
Table: Russia Refining - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016   . . . 40
Table: Russia Refining - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022     . . . 40
Revenues/Import Costs .... 42
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  43
CEE - Risk/Reward Ratings ..... 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings. 44
Caspian Retains Lead In Upstream Ratings . 45
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating     . . 45
Russian Trouble Persists . 47
Regional Minnows Breaking In ..... 49
Downstream Stabilisation  49
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings   49
Russia Risk/Reward Ratings .... 53
Russia Upstream Rating - Overview ..... 53
Russia Upstream Rating - Rewards  53
Russia Upstream Rating - Risks .... 53
Russia Downstream Rating - Overview . 53
Market Overview ... 55
Russia Energy Market Overview ..... 55
Overview/ State Role . 58
Licensing And Regulation  60
Government Policy ... 63
Table: Changes In MET Rates (RUB Per Mcm)  . . . 66
International Energy Relations ..... 69
Gas Transit And Marketing .... 75
Oil Transit .. 83
Oil & Gas Infrastructure ... 86
Oil Refineries .... 86
Table: Downstream Projects - Russia     . . 86
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 92
Oil Pipelines ..... 93
LNG Liquefaction Terminals .. 96
Gas Pipelines .. 100
Others  105
Competitive Landscape .. 107
Executive Summary  107
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil & Gas Sector108
Table: Key Upstream Players . 109
Table: Key Downstream Players. . 109
Company Profile .. 110
Gazprom .... 110
Gazprom Neft ... 116
Rosneft/TNK-BP  121
Lukoil .. 128
Tatneft . 133
Total ... 136
Imperial Energy/ONGC .. 139
Novatek ..... 142
Russneft ..... 145
Other Summaries ..... 148
Regional Overview .... 155
Europe Energy Overview  155
A Dependent Relationship .... 157
Looking For A Break Up ..... 159
Central Asia: Beneficiaries Of Europe's Russian Fatigue ..... 161
Moving From Pipeline To LNG ... 162
Russia Strikes Back  163
Eastern Europe: Black Sea Gold Rush ..... 164
Shale Gas Showdown .... 165
Global Industry Overview  167
Global Energy Market Overview .. 167
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)  . . 168
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts     . 175
Industry Trend Analysis .. 177
Growing Implementation Base .... 178
Developed Drive .... 180
Appendix .. 181
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix .... 181
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d). . 181
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)  . . 182
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 182
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)   183
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d). 184
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)  . 184
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 185
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)   . 186
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm) . . . 186
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)   . . . 187
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)  . . . 188
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)   . 188
Glossary ... 189
Table: Glossary Of Terms  . 189
Methodology .. 191
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 191
Ratings Overview ... 191
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure192
Indicators . 192
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology     . . . 192
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology .... 194
Energy Industry ..... 194
Cross checks ... 195
Sources .... 195

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