2013年第三季度韩国房地产市场研究报告——South Korea Real Estate Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Real Estate|

2013-5-22


Abstract

The South Korea Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction
segments in the context of a slowing economy vulnerable to international macroeconomic headwinds and an
infrastructure sector that is not living up to its potential.
With a focus on the principal cities of Daegu, Busan and Seoul, the report covers the country's rental market
performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real
estate market while minimising investment risk with the country's selection as host of the 2018 Winter
Olympics. The success of this bid will see a renewed focus on the sector over the coming years in the leadup
to the main event. More likely than not, South Korea will also see a general increase in tourist arrivals as
a result. In turn, this trend will prove to be a long-term boon to the construction and property industries. All
of this, of course, will be taking place under the watchful eye of the investment community, in South Korea
and overseas. In light of this, BMI has updated its quarterly South Korea Real Estate Report to meet this
heightened interest in the sector, incorporating our most recent data covering full-year 2012.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
Key Points .... 7
SWOT  8
Political . 10
Economic ..... 11
Business Environment  12
Industry Forecast .. 13
Office Forecast .. 13
Table: Forecast Rents (USD per m2/month)      . . . 13
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%). 13
Retail Forecast . 13
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month)      . . 13
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%). 14
Industrial Forecast ... 14
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month)      . . 14
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%). 14
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario .... 15
Table: South Korea Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011-2016    . . 15
Table: South Korea Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022  17
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario .. 19
Liquidity And Power Lead Construction Improvement ..... 22
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 29
Macroeconomic Forecast .. 29
Expenditure Breakdown .. 32
Private Consumption  32
Public Consumption . 32
Gross Fixed Capital Formation .... 32
Net Exports . 33
Table: South Korea - Economic Activity 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  34
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings ..... 34
Table: Asia Pacific Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings    . . 34
South Korea Risk/Reward Ratings ... 34
Rewards ..... 35
Risks .... 35
Market Overview ... 37
Mortgage Easing Confirms Further Economic Deterioration .. 37
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview . 37
Winter Olympics Boosts Domestic Construction Outlook . 38
Seoul ... 39
Busan .. 39
Daegu .. 40
Office .... 40
Rent And Yields . 41
Table: Historic Rents-2011-2012 (US$ per m2/month)    41
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)  . . . 42
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases-H212      42
Retail .... 42
Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (USD per m2/month)   . . 44
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)  . . . 44
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - H212     . . . 44
Industrial ..... 45
Rents And Yields  45
Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (USD per m2/month)   . . 45
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)  . . . 45
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212     . . . 46
Competitive Landscape .... 47
Domestic Expertise Enjoys Growing Overseas Presence .. 48
REITs .. 48
Company Profile .... 50
Golden Narae Real Estate Development Investment Trust .. 50
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation  52
Samsung C&T Engineering & Construction .. 55
SK Engineering & Construction ..... 57
Demographic Forecast ..... 59
Demographic Outlook  59
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000). . . 60
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)      . 62
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020   . 63
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . 63
Methodology .... 64
Construction Industry ..... 65
Bank Lending .... 66
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ... 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators   . 67
Sources  69

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