2013年第三季度泰国农业综合企业研究报告——Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Agribusiness|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as
the sector benefits from strong export opportunities and government support as well as an efficient foodproducing
industry. The sugar and livestock sectors are especially promising; however, the government's
interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thailand's
production relative to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback
programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing
Thailand's food-producing efficiency and in boosting the country's export competitiveness. Thailand will
remain a key rice exporter but may lose out to secondary exporters owing to growing instability in its trade
policy.
Key Forecasts
■ Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 20.9% to 1.9mn tonnes. This growth will largely be due to
increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncooked imports in April
2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products and give the industry more
impetus to expand production.
■ Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 15.8% to 11.8mn tonnes. This will be driven mainly by strong
sugar cane yield improvements, improved sugar recovery from cane and strong export opportunities.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .... 10
Agribusiness . 10
Business Environment  12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Grains Outlook ... 14
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 . . . 14
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  17
Rice Outlook . 18
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017  19
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  26
Sugar Outlook ..... 28
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 . . . 28
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . . 35
Dairy Outlook ..... 37
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017  37
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2012-2017     . . 38
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  42
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2007-2012     . 42
Livestock Outlook  43
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-201744
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017  44
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 . 44
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-201248
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  48
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 49
Commodities Price Analysis ... 50
Monthly Softs Update . 50
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts      60
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy  . . 61
Monthly Grains Update .... 62
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts      69
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy  . . 70
Upstream Analysis  71
Asia Machinery Outlook ... 71
Asia Fertiliser Outlook ..... 77
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)      80
Asia GM Outlook . 83
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates  . 88
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops, 2012. 89
Downstream Analysis . 90
Food ..... 90
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017    . 91
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017   92
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017   93
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 . 94
Drink .... 95
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017  . 97
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017   . . . 99
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017     . . . 100
Mass Grocery Retail  101
Table: MGR Sales Value By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017    . 102
Table: Estimated Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format   . 103
Regional Overview .... 104
Asia Regional Overview .. 104
Competitive Landscape .. 109
Table: Thailand - Major Agribusiness Companies     109
Company Profile .. 110
Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PLC ... 110
Table: Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL's Financial Highlights, 2008-2012     . . 118
Charoen Pokphand Foods PLC .... 119
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2008-2012. 128
Demographic Forecast ... 129
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 130
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)131
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020    132
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020  . . 132
Methodology .. 133

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