2013年第三季度土耳其农业综合企业研究报告——Turkey Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Agribusiness|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the
confectionary industry. We see little growth potential for the grain, dairy, livestock and rice sectors, where
we believe the country's production growth will be hampered by high domestic production and input costs.
In line with these views, we believe domestic confectionary companies will perform the best as they will take
advantage of growing domestic sugar production capacity as well as a strong consumer story. We highlight
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (Ulker) as an example for this.
Key Forecasts
■ Wheat production growth to 2016/17: -0.9% to 19.8mn tonnes. We expect the country to remain a
large importer over the medium term and believe production growth will lag behind consumption growth.
■ Sugar consumption growth to 2016/17: 3.7% to 2.5mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong
growth for the confectionary industry as a whole as well as the positive consumer outlook.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Agribusiness ... 9
Business Environment  11
Industry Forecast .. 12
Sugar Outlook ..... 12
Table: Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption  . . 12
Table: Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption  . . 17
Grain Outlook ..... 18
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption  . . 19
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption  . 19
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption  . . . 19
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption  . . 23
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption  . 23
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption  . . . 23
Rice Outlook . 25
Table: Turkey Rice Production & Consumption   25
Table: Turkey Rice Production & Consumption   26
Livestock Outlook  28
Table: Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption  28
Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption. . . 29
Table: Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption  33
Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption. . . 33
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 35
Economic Analysis ..... 35
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity      . . 40
Commodities Forecast ..... 41
Monthly Softs Update . 41
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts    51
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy      . . 52
Upstream Analysis  53
Europe Fertiliser Outlook . 53
Europe GM Outlook ... 58
Europe Machinery Outlook  63
Downstream Analysis . 68
Drink .... 68
Alcoholic Drinks  68
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017  . . 68
Soft Drinks .. 71
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017   . . . 72
Hot Drinks .. 76
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017    77
Trade .... 79
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017  . 80
Mass Grocery Retail .. 80
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017   81
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format     83
Competitive Landscape .... 84
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies     . 84
Demographic Forecast ..... 85
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)       . 86
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)    . 87
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . 88
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020. 88
Methodology .... 89

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