2013年第三季度乌干达电信市场研究报告——Uganda Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Telecommunications|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: Two of BMI's key views for Uganda's mobile market have played out since our last update.
These are the likelihood for consolidation, which was confirmed by Airtel's bid and subsequent regulatory
approval to acquire Warid Telecom, and the launch of commercial 4G LTE network services by MTN. We
expect these developments, along with full implementation of mandatory SIM registration, to define
competition dynamics in Uganda's mobile market over our forecast period, through to 2017. The Airtel-
Warid merger could be the first of several mergers as we retain our view that the market is not capable of
supporting more than five operators over the long term. Meanwhile, MTN's LTE network roll out will spur
further investments in data networks as operators seek ways to diversify their revenue streams away from
low-margin voice services.
Key Data
■ The mobile market grew by 1.8% in Q113, compared with 3.5% over the same period in 2012.
■ Mobile ARPU remained below US$4 in Q113 despite an uptick in mobile data subscriptions.
■ The fixed-line market grew by 11.2% in 2012.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Mobile ..... 9
Fixed-Line .... 11
Political . 13
Economic ..... 15
Business Environment  17
Industry Forecast .. 18
Mobile ... 18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017   . . 18
ARPU .... 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast (UGX), 2010-2017 . . . 20
Fixed Line .... 22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast, 2010-2017  . . . 22
Broadband ... 24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast, 2010-2017   . . 24
Risk Reward Ratings ... 26
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings ..... 26
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, Q313      . . 29
Uganda Risk/Reward Ratings ... 30
Market Overview ... 32
Mobile ... 32
Regional Perspective  32
Table: Regional Comparison, 2012      . 33
Key Developments .... 34
Mobile Growth .. 35
Market Shares ... 36
Usage .. 38
Mobile Content .. 40
Table: Recent VAS Developments      . . 43
Mobile Market Overview . 44
Table: Market Overview 44
Table: MTN    . 44
Table: Airtel    . 45
Table: UTL    . . 45
Table: Warid    45
Mobile Content ... 47
Non-Voice Revenue Contribution Head Into Double Digits .... 47
Diversity Of Services  48
Mobile Crossovers Still In The Mix  49
M2M Debuts In Africa .... 50
Fixed Line .... 51
Broadband ... 53
Market Growth .. 55
WiMAX  56
Mobile Broadband ... 57
Satellite  57
Optical Fibre Backbones . 58
Table: Fibre-Optic Cable Coverage, May 2011   59
Table: Selected Wireline Developments     60
Industry Trends And Developments .. 62
Table: Wireless Developments       . . 63
Regulatory Development .. 65
Regulatory Overview .. 65
Table: Uganda Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities       65
Competitive Landscape .... 69
Table: Key Players: Uganda Telecoms Sector   . 69
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators  . . . 69
Company Profile .... 70
Uganda Telecom (UTL) .... 70
MTN Uganda  73
Regional Overview  76
Background  77
2012 Achievements ... 77
Financial Results ..... 79
Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000)79
Demographic Forecast ..... 80
Demographic Outlook  80
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)       81
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)     . . 81
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . 82
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-202083
Glossary ..... 84
Table: Glossary Of Terms. . 84
Methodology .... 86
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts     . . . 86
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ..... 87
Table: Ratings Indicators. . . 88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators       . 89

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