2013年第三季度委内瑞拉IT市场研究报告——Venezuela Information Technology Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Information Technology|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: We revised our forecast for Venezuela's IT market downwards in the Q3 2013 update to take
account of devaluation in February 2013 and further downside risks from the uncertainty of the political
and economic situation following the death of Hugo Chávez. The initial transition to the government of
Nicholas Maduro has been relatively smooth, but we still believe there are uncertainties arising from the
loss of Chávez as a figurehead for the movement. Despite this disruption BMI continues to point to
opportunities in Venezuela. It is one of the smaller markets in its region. However, it has a low PC
penetration rate from which we infer there is potential for strong medium-term growth. Further,
government PC programmes will boost sales, although most units will be procured locally with little scope
for international vendors to compete.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: From VEB5.7bn in 2012 to VEB7.0bn in 2013. The devaluation of the bolívar
resulted in a downgrade to our forecast for 2013 as it increases the price of imported hardware. Meanwhile,
cheap computer programmes, and the PCs for schools programmes is another market driver of unit
shipments.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
IT ..... 9
SWOT ... 11
Political . 13
Economic ..... 14
Business Environment  15
Industry Forecast .. 16
Table: Venezuela IT Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (VEFmn, unless otherwise stated) 16
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 21
Table: Venezuela - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %   . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 26
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings, Q3 2013    . . 28
Market Overview ... 30
Hardware ... 30
Software ..... 35
IT Services .. 39
Industry Trends And Developments .. 42
Regulatory Development .. 45
Table: Regulatory Authority    45
Company Profile .... 48
Oracle Corp . 48
Table: Oracle: Selected Acquisitions . . . 49
Venezuela de Industria Tecnologica  55
Regional Overview  58
Demographic Forecast ..... 62
Demographic Outlook  62
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 63
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)65
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020    66
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020  . 66
Methodology .... 67
Methodology . 67
IT Industry .. 67
IT Ratings - Methodology  68
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators69
Weighting ... 70
Table: Weighting Of Components  . . 70
Sources  70

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