2013年第三季度越南货物运输市场研究报告——Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Freight Transport|

2013-5-22


Abstract

Vietnam's real GDP growth accelerated from 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q312 to 5.4% in Q412,
reinforcing our view that the economy is poised for a robust recovery in H113. Also, Vietnam's trade
surplus expanded in February 2013, amid a sharp decline in imports. Exports surpassed imports by US
$900mn in February, after a revised US$776mn in January, according to preliminary figures released by the
General Statistics Office. Imports fell to US$6.6bn in February from a revised US$10.7bn in January, while
exports slipped to US$7.5bn from a revised US$11.5bn over the same period.
Over the past two years, Vietnam's infrastructure sector has largely been off the radar among foreign
investors, meaning that the country's freight industry has perhaps had cause to feel a little neglected. This is
despite numerous project opportunities cropping up. Latest estimates from the Vietnam Ministry of
Planning indicate that Vietnam needs around US$160bn being made available for infrastructure
development between 2013 and 2020.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .... 10
Freight Transport  10
Political . 12
Economic ..... 13
Business Environment  14
Industry Forecast .. 15
Road Freight ..... 18
Table: Road Freight      20
Inland Waterways .... 20
Table: Inland Waterway Freight   22
Rail Freight  22
Table: Vietnam Transport Network Length (km)     . . . 22
Table: Rail Freight      . . 23
Air Freight .. 23
Table: Air Freight      . . . 25
Maritime Freight ..... 25
Table: Maritime Freight     27
Trade ... 27
Table: Trade Overview     . 27
Table: Key Trade Indicators    28
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn    . . 28
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn    . . 29
Market Overview ... 30
Industry Trends And Developments .. 37
Maritime .... 37
Multimodal . 39
Rail ..... 40
Air  40
Company Profile .... 41
Vietnam Airlines Cargo .... 41
Vietnam Petroleum Transport Company (VIPCO)  43
Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines)  45
Regional Overview  48
Political Outlook . 48
Domestic Politics .... 48
Table: Vietnam Political Overview  . 50
Long-Term Political Outlook .. 51
Global Industry Overview .. 54
Global Oil Product Price Outlook ... 54
Methodology ..... 54
Crude Price Forecasts .... 55
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)  . . . 55
Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off ..... 55
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl     59
Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone . 60
Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices ... 64
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect ... 65
Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump  66
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes      66
Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand . 67
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 69
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity  72
Demographic Forecast ..... 73
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)  74
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total). . 75
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020    . . 76
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020  . . . 76
Methodology .... 77
Transport Industry ... 78
Sources  78

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