2013年第三季度赞比亚制药及保健市场研究报告——Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Pharmaceuticals|Healthcare|

2013-5-22


Abstract

BMI View: Zambia has a strong economy thanks to its relative political stability and copper mining
industry, but there are considerable gaps in its provision of healthcare services. With many specialist
healthcare professionals concentrated in the capital, Lusaka, the population of rural communities rarely
has access to specialist services. There are also other differences in rural/urban healthcare provision, such
as those relating to the drug supply chain, drug quality concerns and a lack of modern healthcare facilities
in much of the country. Zambia's disease burden is typical of that of developing countries, with a high
incidence of communicable diseases; many immunisation programmes are run by NGOs while Zambia
depends upon international funding for its HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes. Domestic drug
production is limited to basic drugs, meaning that much of its pharmaceutical market depends upon drug
imports.
Headline Expenditure Projections
■ Pharmaceuticals: ZMK1,018.4bn (US$198mn) in 2012 to ZMK1,160.3bn (US$214mn) in 2013;
+13.9% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q213.
■ Healthcare: ZMK6,672bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012 to ZMK7,683bn (US$1.25bn) in 2013; +15.1% in local
currency terms and +9.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast raised slightly from Q213.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Political . 10
Economic ..... 11
Business Environment  13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast .... 15
Table: Zambia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017   . . . 16
Healthcare Market Forecast .... 17
Table: Zambia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 . 19
Table: Zambia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017   . 20
Table: Zambia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 ...  20
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 21
Economic Analysis ..... 21
Table: ZAMBIA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. 24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  25
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings  25
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 33
Rewards ..... 33
Risks .... 33
Market Overview ... 35
Industry Trends And Developments .. 38
Epidemiology .... 38
Healthcare Sector .... 39
Regulatory Development .. 45
Regulatory Regime ..... 45
Demographic Forecast ..... 50
Demographic Outlook  50
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)  . 51
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total). . . 51
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020    . . . 52
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020   53
Glossary ..... 54
Methodology .... 56
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model .... 56
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model ..... 56
Notes On Methodology .... 57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology  58
Ratings Overview ..... 59
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators   . . . 59
Indicator Weightings  60

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