2013年第三季度阿尔及利亚石油天然气市场研究报告——Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Oil|Gas|

2013-7-10


Abstract

BMI View: Adoption of new hydrocarbons regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in
the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are nonetheless sceptical about
the tax reform, which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers. The next short-term challenge for
Algeria will be to alleviate the security concerns created by the In Amenas attack. In the meantime, start-up
of the El Merk oil project, in May 2013, along with several gas projects to come online in the next few
years, will help Algeria maintain its level of production.
The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:
■ Anadarko's El Merk oil project started production in line with planned scheduled throughout Q213. The
project reached an output of 12, 000 barrels per day (b/d) in May, which is expected to peak at about
130,000b/d by the end of the year.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Oil And Gas Reserves ..... 11
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016   . . 11
Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022   . . 12
Oil Supply And Demand .. 16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016     . . . 16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022     . . . 16
Gas Supply And Demand . 18
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016     . . 18
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022     . . 19
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 24
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016. . 24
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022. . 24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  27
Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings . 27
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings ... 28
Table: Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100). 30
Rewards In Store For Upstream, Though Risks Loom Very Large .. 31
Table: Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings      . . 31
A Widening Downstream Deficit ... 33
Table: Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings     . . . 33
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa     35
Market Overview ... 37
Algeria Energy Market Overview .... 37
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database      . 38
Overview/State Role . 38
Licensing And Regulation  39
Government Policy ... 40
Licensing Rounds ..... 40
International Energy Relations ..... 42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure  43
LNG .... 43
Oil Refineries .... 44
Table: Refineries In Algeria    46
Gas Pipelines .... 46
Competitive Landscape .... 52
Executive Summary .... 52
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector     53
Table: Key Upstream Players   . . 54
Table: Key Downstream Players  . . . 54
Company Profile .... 55
Sonatrach .... 55
Anadarko ..... 60
Eni .. 63
BP .. 67
Total ..... 70
Repsol ... 73
BHP Petroleum ... 76
Cepsa .... 78
Statoil ... 82
Other Companies - Summary ... 85
Regional Overview  89
Africa Energy Market Overview ..... 89
Sub-Salt Expectations ..... 89
Oil Flows Under Stress ... 90
East African Gas Boom ... 92
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race ... 94
Post-Revolutionary Blues . 95
Global Industry Overview .. 97
Global Energy Market Overview .... 97
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl). . . 98
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts . 105
Industry Trends And Analysis . 107
Growing Implementation Base .... 108
Developed Drive .... 110
Appendix .. 111
Africa - Regional Appendix .... 111
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)    . . 111
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)      . . 112
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)     . 112
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)113
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)    . 114
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)      . 114
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)     . . 115
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). 116
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)      116
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 117
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)     . . 118
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). . 118
Glossary ... 119
Table: Glossary Of Terms    . 119
Methodology .. 121
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 121
Ratings Overview ... 121
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure   122
Indicators . 123
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology   . . . 123
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology .... 124
Energy Industry ..... 125
Cross checks ... 125
Sources .... 126

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