23013年中美洲农业综合企业研究报告——Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

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关键字: |Agribusiness|

2013-7-10


Abstract

The Central America coffee sector is set to see disappointing production in 2012/13 as a rust outbreak
affected this year's harvest. We believe low global prices could discourage production in the coming years,
putting further downside risks to the development of the sector in the medium term. The region is generally
dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That
said, Central America is expected to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar
exports, with the industry having potential to attract investment over the medium term.
Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 15.9% to 14.3mn bags. As the region becomes more attractive to
investors, we expect the coffee sector to see increased export opportunities. We have revised our
forecasts after the recent disease outbreak, and lower prices will limit upside in the near term.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT  9
Agribusiness ... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Livestock Outlook  11
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017   . . . 12
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017   13
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017   13
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012   . . . 15
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012   15
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012   16
Sugar Outlook ..... 18
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017  . . . 19
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  . . . 21
Grains Outlook ... 23
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017   24
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012   26
Coffee Outlook .... 28
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017  . . 29
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012  . . 34
Commodities Price Analysis ... 36
Monthly Softs Strategy  36
Monthly Grains Strategy ... 41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts     . . 49
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy. . 50
Upstream Analysis  51
Americas GM Outlook  51
Americas Fertiliser Outlook ..... 55
Americas Machinery Outlook ... 61
Downstream Analysis . 68
Food ..... 68
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017     69
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017     69
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017    . . . 70
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017     . 70
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017   . . 71
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 . . . 73
Table: El Salvador- Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017     . . 73
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 . . . 74
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017  75
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017  . 77
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017     . . 78
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017     . . 78
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017. 79
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 . . 80
Drink .... 82
Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 . . 83
Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 . . 83
Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 . 84
Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 . . . 84
Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017    . . 85
Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017    . . . 85
Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017    . . 85
Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017     86
Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017. . 87
Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017. . 87
Table: El Salvador - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017. 87
Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017. . . 88
Retail .... 88
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %. . . 89
Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017     . . . 89
Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017     . . . 89
Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017     . . 90
Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-201790
Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017  . . 92
Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017  . . 92
Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017  . 92
Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017  . . . 92
Regional Overview  93
Regional Overview - Americas . 93
Demographic Forecast ... 100
Belize .. 100
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)     . 101
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)   . . . 101
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . 102
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020. 103
Costa Rica . 104
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    105
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)  . . 105
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. . 106
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020     107
El Salvador  108
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)   . . . 109
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)  . 109
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 110
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020    . . . 111
Guatemala . 112
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    113
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)  . . 113
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. . 114
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020    . . . 115
Honduras ... 116
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    . . 117
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)   117
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 118
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020     . . 119
Nicaragua .. 120
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    121
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)  . . 121
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. . . 122
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020    . . . 123
Panama ..... 124
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)    . . . 125
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)   . 126
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 127
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020     . . 127
Methodology .. 128

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