阿尔及利亚石化行业2013第三季度报告——Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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关键字: 石化|Petrochemicals

2013.5

BMI View: While some petrochemicals projects have experienced significant delays, we believe the industry is on course for strong growth as new plants are opened and domestic demand for plastic accelerates. The automotives industry is set for expansion while the construction industry should experience a solid recovery, although overall economic growth will remain below par. However, there will need to be greater focus on adding value to production if the domestic industry is to take full advantage of market growth.

The Algerian government set out a US$80bn five-year investment budget in 2012, a US$12bn increase on previous plans as a result of investment in the country's unconventional gas reserves. This will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the petrochemicals industry, not only because there will be more gas available for feedstock, but also because Sonatrach will have more money to invest in revamping and boosting its petrochemicals industries.
BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14
Table: Arzew Complex Capacities, 2014 ('000 tonnes) 16
Table: Algeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 17

Macroeconomic Forecasts 18

Private Consumption Outlook 19

Fixed Investment Outlook 20

Government Spending Outlook 20

Net Exports 21

Risks to Outlook 22

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24

Algeria Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 24

Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 25

Africa Coming Into View As Gulf States Mature 26

Arab Spring Takes Its Toll 26

Regulatory Framework Dictates Risks 27
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk Ratings 28

Market Overview 29
Table: Algeria Cracker Capacity, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa) 33

Industry Trends And Developments 34
Table: Petrochemicals Capacity At The Planned Arzew Complex 35

Company Profile 40

Sonatrach 40

Regional Overview 44
Table: Africa's Gas Reserves, 2012 (bcm) 44
Table: Africa's Oil Reserves, 2012 (bn bbl) 44

Global Industry Overview 48

Global Petrochemicals Overview 48

Global Oil Product Price Outlook 54

Methodology 54

Crude Price Forecasts 55
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 55

Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 55
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 59

Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 60

Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 64

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 65

Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 66
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 66

Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 67

Demographic Forecast 69

Demographic Outlook 69
Table: Algeria - Population By Age Group 70
Table: Algeria - Key Population Ratios 71
Table: Algeria - Rural and Urban Population 71

Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 72

Methodology 73

Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 73

Cross Checks 74

Risk/Reward Ratings 74
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale 75

Weighting 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 76

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