阿根廷货运行业2013第三季度报告——Argentina Freight Transport Report Q3 2013

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关键字: 货运|Freight Transport

2013.5

BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine freight transport sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and labour unrest. We forecast Argentine real GDP growth will slow to 0.9%
in 2013 on the back of a poor business environment, weakening domestic demand, and high inflation - the result of a large currency devaluation. We see the potential for a more sound policy course and base effects to result in growth trending upward from 2014-2017.

Our freight transport growth forecasts reflect this slow growth outlook, with growth projected at less than one percent in rail and air freight, and relatively slow growth at the country's premier maritime ports. The government's policies have already had a direct effect on the freight transport sector, with a general strike in November 2012 leading to disruption across all freight modes, witnessing airports and ports being shut and barricades placed across roads and rail tracks.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Freight Transport 9

Political 10

Economic 11

Business Environment 12

Industry Forecast 14

Rail Freight 14
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017 16

Air Freight 17
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017 18

Maritime Freight 19
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017 20

Trade 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 21
Table: Argentina's Main Import Partners (US$mn) 22
Table: Argentina's Main Export Partners (US$mn) 23

Market Overview 24

Industry Trends And Developments 27

Rail Freight 27

Air Freight 28

Maritime 29

Company Profile 31

America Latina Logistica 31

Agunsa 36

Aerolineas Argentinas 39

Ultrapetrol 42

Regional Overview 47

Political Outlook 47

Long-Term Political Outlook 52
Table: Table: Argentina Political Overview 56

Global Industry Overview 57

Global Oil Product Price Outlook 57

Methodology 57

Crude Price Forecasts 58
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 58

Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 58
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 62

Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 63

Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 67

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 68

Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 69
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 69

Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 70

Macroeconomic Forecasts 72
Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure 79

Demographic Forecast 81
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 82
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 83
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 84
Table: Argentina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 84

Methodology 85

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85

Transport Industry 86

Sources 86

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