澳大利亚货运行业2013第三季度报告——Australia Freight Transport Report Q3 2013

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关键字: 货运|Freight Transport

2013.5

The extent of Chinese growth in recent years has been the driving factor behind Australia's export boom, as well as the expansion of the country's freight transport sector. With China's growth outlook now starting to slow and BMI projecting that an expansion of 8% in China's economy is not sustainable, we believe that Australia will need to diversify its trade mix to help keep its freight sector ahead of the curve.

Although Australia does have free trade negotiations under way with other Asian nations, such as India,
Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, China is set to remain Australia's dominant trade partner, with the two tied together by the former's mineral wealth and the latter's continued appetite for raw materials.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Freight Transport 10

Political 12

Economic 13

Business Environment 14

Industry Forecast 16

Road Freight 18
Table: Road Freight 20

Rail Freight 20
Table: Australia Rail Freight 22

Air Freight 22
Table: Air Freight 23

Maritime Freight 24
Table: Maritime Freight 25

Trade 25
Table: Trade Overview 25
Table: Key Trade Indicators 26
Table: Australia's Main Import Partners By Source Country (US$mn) 27
Table: Australia's Main Export Partners By Destination Country (US$mn) 27

Market Overview 28

Industry Trends And Developments 36

Maritime 36

Air 38

Rail 39

Company Profile 40

Toll Group 40

Pacific National 43

Aurizon (formerly QR National) 46

Qantas Freight 49

Australian National Lines 52

Regional Overview 55

Political Outlook 55

Domestic Politics 55
Table: Political Overview 56

Long-Term Political Outlook 57

Global Industry Overview 61

Global Oil Product Price Outlook 61

Methodology 61

Crude Price Forecasts 62
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 62

Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 62
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 66

Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 67

Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 71

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 72

Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 73
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 73

Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 74

Macroeconomic Forecasts 76

Signs Of Overheating Weigh on Infrastructure Investments 77

Weakness In Other Sectors Further Weighing Down Economy 78

Austerity Measures To Be Reversed 79
Table: Australia - Economic Activity 81

Demographic Forecast 82
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 83
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 84
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 85
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 85

Methodology 86

Transport Industry 87

Sources 87

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