澳大利亚金属行业2013第三季度报告——Australia Metals Report Q3 2013

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关键字: 金属|Metals

2013.5

BMI View: Across all types of metals, we expect subdued growth in both production and consumption in Australia as a weakening global economic outlook, notably China, continue to take its toll on Australia's commodity driven economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remain weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production,
which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2010. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2013. Crude steel production contracted by 6.5% in 2012, but we forecast an uptick in growth of 1.2% in 2013, and national production is unlikely to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), has embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 10
Table: Australia - Steel Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15
Table: Table: Australia - Steel Production, 2003-2010('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16
Table: Australia - Refined Aluminium Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 20

Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 21
Table: Table: Australia - Refined Nickel Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes) 24

Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 24
Table: Australia - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 27

Regulatory Development 29

Tax Regime 29
Table: Political Overview 30

Commodities Forecast 31

Steel Price Forecast 31
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 31
Table: Steel Forecast 37

Monthly Metals Update 38

Iron Ore 39

Steel 41

Copper 43

Aluminium 44

Lead 45

Nickel 45

Tin 46

Zinc 47
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy 47
Table: Select Metals - Performance And BMI Forecasts 48

Competitive Landscape 49
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 50

Company Profile 52

Arrium 52
Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 55

Rio Tinto 56

Company Overview 58

Company Strategy 59
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 60

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