阿塞拜疆石化行业2013第三季度报告——Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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关键字: 石化|Petrochemicals

2013.5

Azerbaijan is beginning to address major infrastructural constraints with a view to becoming a significant petrochemicals producer. Capacity utilisation at existing plants is restricted by lack of investment and maintenance, as well as the predominance of old and environmentally damaging technology. Projects outlined by the economy ministry are formulated based on prospective export markets. However, BMI believes that the industry is highly underdeveloped and there is a gap between the country's petrochemicals ambitions and available feedstock.

The focus in 2013 will be on the new export-oriented 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) methanol production facility, which came onstream in Q113 and raised total methanol capacity in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa.

Around 90% of production will be sold abroad with the remainder utilised by non-oil sectors, including in the production of acetic acid (165,000tpa), formaldehyde (18,000tpa) and melamine (15,000tpa).

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11
Table: Petrochemicals Sector, 2009-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 11

Macroeconomic Forecasts 14

Economic Analysis 14
Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity 17

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 18

Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 18
Table: Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 21

Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 21

Market Overview 24
Table: Cracker Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ('000 tpa) 24
Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 2000-2011 ('000 tonnes) 25

Industry Trends And Developments 27

Upstream 28

Company Profile 30

Azerkimya 30

State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) 32

Regional Overview 35

Europe Overview 35

Global Industry Overview 41

Global Petrochemicals Overview 41

Global Oil Product Price Outlook 46

Methodology 46

Crude Price Forecasts 48
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 48

Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 48
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 52

Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 53

Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 57

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 58

Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 59
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 59

Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 60

Demographic Forecast 62
Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 63
Table: Azerbaijan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 63
Table: Azerbaijan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 64

Glossary 65
Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms 65

Methodology 66

Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 66

Cross Checks 67

Risk/Reward Ratings 67
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale 68

Weighting 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 69

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